Abstract:

Diverse pressures for change operate at the outer metropolitan fringe. This paper examines the spatial and temporal dynamics of change in this area. We set up a simple model that incorporates spatial and temporal dynamics of functional (land use) and structural (land cover) interactions. We posit that land use (development) changes the ecosystem functions at the edge of urban areas expressed in change in land cover. Additionally, the characteristics of land cover (forest, agriculture, bare soil, neighboring cover etc.) mutually influence the land use. We estimate a model where land values and land use are jointly determined while land use and land cover interact recursively. We use historical data, probability estimation and land use simulation to generate panel data of future patterns of land value, land use and land cover at the outer edge of the Tel Aviv metropolitan area for the period 1995–2023. The modeling system combines panel 2SLS (2-stage least squares) estimation to investigate land value-land use interactions. Land use-land cover dynamics are estimated using panel MNL (multi-nomial logit) estimation. Results of simple simulations of the probability of land cover change are presented. When coupled with an appropriate biodiversity model, this system could potentially be extended to forecasting other aspects of the environmental stress of metropolitan expansion, for example impacts on vegetation or ecological dynamics.

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